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Consensus estimates

South32 has invited registered sell-side analysts who monitor South32’s securities to submit their estimates in respect of half-year ended 31 December 2023 to an external web-based platform hosted by Vuma Financial Limited (Vuma) (an independent service provider). South32 does not consider the information in the table to be materially price sensitive. It is provided as a courtesy to all interested persons who would not otherwise have access to it.

The consensus figure for a particular item is the arithmetic mean of all estimates submitted for that item by participating sell-side analysts and collated by Vuma. Analyst estimates entered into Vuma that are materially out of date, or that contain a manifest error have been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures. The following estimates were excluded given they included a manifest error:

  • One set of estimates for Underlying net finance costs, Underlying income tax expense, Underlying earnings and Underlying basic earnings per share: has been reported on a statutory basis, which incorrectly excludes our manganese and Sierra Gorda EAIs 
  • One set of estimates for Brazil Aluminium sales, Brazil Aluminium revenue and Brazil Aluminium Underlying EBITDA: estimates have been incorrectly reported on a full-year basis  
  • One set of estimates for Worsley Alumina realised price, Worsley Alumina revenue and Worsley Alumina Underlying EBITDA: estimate for realised price materially differs from reported actuals, which has also impacted the calculation of estimates for revenue and Underlying EBITDA 
  • One set of estimates for Illawarra Metallurgical Coal metallurgical coal production and energy coal production: estimates materially differ from reported actuals 
  • One sets of estimates for Illawarra Metallurgical Coal energy coal production and energy coal sales: estimates materially differ from reported actuals 
  • One set of estimates for Sierra Gorda payable gold sales: this estimate is nil, which materially differs from reported actuals 
  • Two sets of estimates for Cannington realised zinc sales price: estimates materially differ from reported actuals 

The consensus figures reflect the opinions of the participating sell-side analysts and are not directly or indirectly attributable to South32. South32 has not commented on or verified the information provided by the contributors (other than to correct factual inaccuracies or to direct the analyst(s) to information previously disclosed to the Australian Securities Exchange). Neither Vuma nor third party sell-side analysts have access to South32’s internal financial information. Publication of the consensus figures should not be treated as an express or implied endorsement of the information by South32. South32 expressly disclaims any endorsement of or concurrence with the information and makes no comment about its own forecast performance.

South32’s actual performance for the period is not yet known and may differ from the consensus figures. A significant number of variable factors impact the Group’s financial results, including accounting determinations and external factors (such as fluctuations in exchange rates and commodity prices) immediately prior to the end of the financial year.

The South32 Group, its Directors and employees do not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information, assume no liability whatsoever in relation to the information and undertake no obligation to update or revise it. The information does not constitute or contain investment advice or any recommendation in relation to South32 financial products.